NOTE: this blog is no longer active as of 12/07. New one: http://blog.kirchhof.com
Quidquid latine dictum sit, altum viditur.
Thu, 27 May 2004
"Bush has become a 47 percent president at best."
James Carvillie and Stan Greenberg have released their mid-season strategy memo over at
Democracy Corps. It is a
comprehensive analysis of current polling data, addressing issues such as "Bush collapse on Iraq,"
"Foreign Policy and the War on Terrorism," and "Economic frustration."
Here's the lead:
"Six months out from the election, the race for president has entered a new and distinct
phase with Bush not only endangered, as we suggested earlier, but now with the
odds against him. He is more likely to lose than win. Public confidence has collapsed on
Iraq, but there is a lot of collateral damage, producing a strong desire for change.
Whether it is the vote or job approval or personal favorability, Bush has become a 47
percent president at best. In almost every area, he is being dragged down by even
stronger negative trends. Put simply by the voters themselves: just 42 percent want the
country to continue in Bush’s direction."
An absolute delight of a
must read. (PDF format.)
Posted at 12:17 by Randy Kirchhof [Permalink]
[Reload all]
[E-mail]
Big trouble for the recovery
Back in February, I was wondering why Alan Greenspan would recommend that homeowners with
fixed-rate mortgages examine switching to adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs.) It seemed -- and is --
an absurd recommendatioon to make, especially by someone who is supposed to be cognizant of
basic arithmetic. Interest rates are historically low, and have no where to go but up.
Kevin Drum mentions today that the housing bubble is waning now, which caused me to do a bit
of searching. I ran across an article at the Washinton Monthly that nails things nicely. Essentially,
the mortgage refinacing industry is getting ready to go down in flames, which has the potential to
take out consumer spending (which has fueled our so-called recovery to date), take out large banks,
wreak havoc with property tax bases nationwide, and put us into a "you ain't seen nothin' yet" recession.
It's well worth
a read.
Posted at 07:43 by Randy Kirchhof [Permalink]
[Reload all]
[E-mail]
